23 June 2016. A date that will remain forever in the memory of Great Britain and the European Union.
With 51.9% of the votes the referendum resulted in victory for the “leave” campaign and the departure of Britain from Europe. A decision that, at just over two weeks from the vote, continues to produce great uncertainty and concern particularly in the financial and economic sector. After the fall in the stock markets, the last few days have seen cautious recoveries for the main European markets. The figures continue to fluctuate, painting an uncertain picture likely to remain so at least until the real consequences of Brexit become clear.
Worryingly, Standard & Poor’s predict that the shock of Brexit will be felt primarily in the United Kingdom, but will also have significant implications for the rest of Europe.
There are many considerations in this regard, but few certainties about what may happen since, at least for the next two years, nothing is expected to change. According to the initial assessments, the immediate impact of Brexit on the global economy concerns the financial markets, currency values and business and entrepreneurial confidence, which is expected to fall sharply. It is more difficult to predict the long term effects. The changes will depend on many factors and will be closely linked to the decisions actually taken by Britain. As regards shipments and the movement of goods, there will probably be positive effects on exports and negative or no effects on the domestic market. Leaving the European Union, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, interviewed by Le Monde, could mean a fall in GDP of between 1.5% and 4.5% by 2019. The Freight Transport Association is also asking the first questions about the consequences for the supply chain of the departure of Great Britain from the European Union. Beginning with the loss of Great Britain’s free access to Europe, a single market worth nearly 400 billion euro, all the way up to questions on border controls, new customs arrangements between London and Brussels, transport regulations, questions about fuel and shipping schedules which may vary under the new regulations and procedures for the transfer of goods. Questions that, yet again, will not yield any definite or concrete answers at least for the next few months.